Get ASX Price


Hot Issues
RBA on hold and likely to remain easy for a long while yet as full employment gets more of a look in
More Aussies look to buy property and refinance
A new crypto world is emerging - the non-fungible token
Saving for your child's future
5 tips for creating your own good fortune this Lunar New Year
A broad range of Calculators.
Shares have had a very strong rebound since March last year so where are we in the investment cycle?
ATO Small Business Newsroom
Many in the dark about retirement
Transfer balance cap set to increase to $1.7 million
How to rebuild your super after a COVID-19 withdrawal
Financial wellness in 2020 - how did yours compare?
The global economy and investment markets this year
ASIC sounds warning around high-yield bond scams
Is $1m enough to retire?
How much super should I have at my age?
Tips for parents who became the bank of mum and dad
How to 2020-proof your finances
Vaccination rates as they happen around the world
2021 - a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
2020 - the year that united us
Videos and other resources for our clients
How to review your direct debits and save
Majority of working Aussies to benefit from personal income tax cuts
2020 is coming to an end. Phew!!
Review of 2020, outlook for 2021
The right times for financial advice
Is your home loan still right for you?
3 golden rules that make saving for retirement easier
How to budget for your social life in retirement
Still The Lucky Country
Comprehensive list of COVID-19 initiatives and packages.
Understanding the Age Pension income and assets test
Considerations when downsizing your home
Ways to help reduce your debts before you retire
How to identify (and beat) your spending triggers
Budget 2020 - A very comprehensive break down.
Budget 2020 - Fact Sheets
Budget 2020 - At a Glance, Overview, Outlook
JobKeeper extension – changes implemented
Australia's "eye popping" budget deficit and public debt blow out
The economics of COVID-19 lockdowns
How mindfulness can improve the way we work
Taking control of your personal finances in a COVID-19 world
September update of latest COVID-19 initiatives.
Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way
Market outlook Q&A
Changes to super contribution rules for over 65s
COVID-19: How long may your super savings take to recover?
Boost your super in the lead up to retirement
4 ways to help prepare your finances for a recession
JobKeeper - Latest Update
The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope
Australian economic and fiscal update
Protect yourself from COVID-19 related scams
The economic hangover of COVID-19: how long will it last?
How to rebuild your super after a COVID-19 withdrawal
Market update - July 2020
Investment options and retirement
Extra Tools & Resources for our clients.
The Australian economy and recovery from COVID-19
Digital payments and online banking for older Aussies
The coming surge in Australia's budget deficit and public debt due to coronavirus
10 medium to longer-term implications from the coronavirus shock
Thinking about insurance ahead of retirement
Gifting and financial generosity during coronavirus
Diversification - why it matters now more than ever
The value of financial advice
Our Website, your resources
Light at the end of the coronavirus tunnel
Market update
Changes to pension drawdown and deeming rates
Preserving retirement saving during COVID-19
How investment market volatility could affect your super
COVID-19: Early Childhood Education and Care Relief Package
The coronavirus pandemic and the economy – a Q&A from an investment perspective
Money challenges women face
Data so large it's hard to comprehend.
Is coronavirus driving a recession, depression or an economic hit like no other?
Holding your nerve – why retirees fear a market plunge
Historic $130bn wage subsidy to cover 6 million workers
Stage 2 – Covid-19 stimulus package.
Covid-19 Update - Small Business
PM launches $17.6 billion virus stimulus plan
The plunge in shares – seven things investors need to keep in mind
Three reasons why low inflation is good for shares and property
Can refinancing my home loan save me money?
Expected GDP by country 2010 to 2100
Super investment options – what’s right for you?
Life beyond work
Statistical picture of Australia - Update
A resource hub for our clients.
Market Update
Real Time World Population Growth - Wow!!
Dividends explained
Start 2020 with a best snapshot of Australia.
5 tips for green investing
Make Australians save again
Bushfires and the Australian economy
Grow your super in the new year
Australia by the Numbers
How to create realistic goals…… and stick to them.
5 days to get your finances in order
Our Advent calendar for 2019
5 reasons why I’m not so fussed about the global outlook
Superannuation changes
You'll be the life of the party when armed with this information!
7 tips to improve your financial wellness
Rebooting for retirement
5 reasons why the A$ may be close to the bottom
Resist today, relax tomorrow
Market Update 30 September 2019
How much superannuation is enough?
All Australia's vital statistics - October 2019
6 new financial videos
DGP by country since 1800
Boost savings with compound interest
High times for low interest rates
Market Update - September 2019
Will the world slip up on oil again?
Australia by the numbers - September 2019
Spending money in a cashless world
Dealing with being cash poor and asset rich
Saving for a rainy day
Market update
Access to more resources and tools than most websites.
Nine reasons why recession remains unlikely in Australia
Can I go back to work if I’ve accessed my super?
How's Australia doing statistically?
Protecting your super package.
Making the most of record-low interest rates.
Market Update 2019
How the top 10 global companies have changes since 1998
The longest US economic expansion ever
When can I access my super
Australia by numbers – Update
How to retire early
How to play catch up with your Super
Inflation undershoots in Australia
9 money mistakes to avoid in retirement
What a financial planner does to help.
Australia's vital statistics.
What kind of money parent are you?
How to save money
Federal Budget 2019 - Overview
How the 2019 Federal Budget affects you
New Global growth slowing, plunging bond yields & inverted yield curves
Women and Money
Market Update - March 2019
The problem with getting to 53 years of age.
How to avoid a travel debt hangover
Things to avoid as a newbie investor
Budget Time - How's Australia going?
Most older Aussies prefer home care over a nursing home
Why growth in China is unlikely to slow too far
10 money conversations to have when your relationship heats up
Australia slides into a 'per capita recession'
6 steps to get your money stuff together
All you need to know about how Australia is going.
Australian housing downturn Q&A
6 ways to reduce your credit card debt once and for all
5 life insurance questions you've always wanted to ask
2019 a list of lists - regarding the macro investment outlook
Part 4 - The major benefit of ‘behavioural coaching'
How to adult—a quick guide to personal finances in your 20s
How Australia is performing.
The Australian economy in 2019
Holiday budgeting tips— How to avoid a travel debt hangover
Australia - a comprehensive run-down of our vital statistics.
The Fed and market turmoil - the Fed turns a bit dovish but not enough (yet)
12 ways to avoid waste this Christmas
Rising US interest rates, trade wars, the US midterm election results, etc
Our Advent calendar for 2018
Responsible and ethical investing
What are the 3 biggest living expenses for households?
Your Adviser and Behavioural Coaching
Stop!! Don't do a paper Budget, use our online budgeting tools instead.
Information needed to be the BBQ expert.
Would you like to retire by 40?
The property cycle and the economy
How financial advice helps create wealth.
7 money personalities you may identify with or want to avoid
Are shares expensive?
How's Australia doing statistically?
Super investment options – what’s right for you?
Here's how to lead a happier life
What happened to all the worries about rising inflation and bond yields? Goldilocks, tariffs, Turkey & other things
Is it better to buy an investment property or home first?
Nine keys to successful investing
This information will turn you into a fireside expert.
How Australians will use their tax return
Lessons from the blue zones: secrets of a long life
Trumponomics and investment markets
Tools for budgeting, cash flow, Super and more ….
How tax deductible personal super contributions work
How much super should I have at my age?
The rise of the gig economy and side gigs (thanks to technology)
Statistics for all Australians
Watch out for tax scams
Now’s the time for tax planning
After the Australian household debt and east coast housing booms
Why it pays to contribute to your partner's super
Australia by numbers – Update
How to deal with financial stress – nearly 1 in 3 affected
Federal Budget 2018 – Overview
Your Budget
4 components of our 2018 Federal Budget
US China trade war fears – Q & A
Tools to help you manage your financial position are available on our site.
7 ways to boost your super
Australians reveal their priority goals
Australia by numbers – Update
Your retirement questions answered
How to make money by turning your unwanted goods into cash
Our website is really our digital office.
Bitcoin – is it really for you?
Spread your money, reduce risk
Love and money? It’s not about control
The pullback in shares - seven reasons not to be too concerned
Australia. All you need to know to be the expert.
Australian’s love affair with debt - how big is the risk?
5 ways to keep a cool head in a falling share market
2018 – a list of lists regarding the macro investment outlook
Sports lovers enjoy better financial fitness
Where Australia is at. Our leading indicators.
The year that was and the year ahead
Add some extra cash to your New Year
New year, new financial resolutions
Our Advent calendar for 2017
Where are we in the global investment cycle?
Australia's vital statistics
12 ways to enjoy summer without spending a fortune
One in three Aussies travel without protection
Digital payment options could see you spend more this Christmas
If you’ve always thought property prices only go up…
Will Australian house prices crash?
Where are we in the global investment cycle and what's the risk of a 1987 style crash?
Money steps for women
Resources on our site to help you, your family and your friends.
Australian Dietary Guidelines and healthy eating chart (PDF)
How to retire, your way
Prepare for retirement without missing out today
Be the boss of your cash
The Australian economy bounces back again
Should you lend money to family?
Money mistakes people make in their 50s and 60s
Australian Dietary Guidelines and healthy eating chart (PDF)
Eight steps to improved cashflow... and lifestyle
Powerful Budgeting, cash flow and Super Tools available on our site.
5 ways Australians will use their tax return this year
Australia's leading causes of death - ABS
The threat of war with North Korea
Six traits of Australians living the dream
The break higher in the Australian dollar is likely to be limited
Money can buy you happiness, you’re just spending it wrong
Key Economic Indicators, 2017 – updated
Helping your kids buy a home
From Goldilocks to taper tantrum 2.0
What’s your debt age?
Doing a budget is a good idea but ....
Planning is the key to making it financially
What to do when you come into money
Managing your money when you move in together
Reduce your bills with these household items
It pays to contribute to your partner's super
How to cope with losing independence
Transition to retirement income streams
The Australian economy hits another rough patch
Watch out for tax scams
The three core pillars of this year's budget
Federal Budget - 2017-18 - Overview
Federal Budget - 2017-18 - Budget documents
Make the most of the current super caps
Five, four, three… it’s not too late to get more in super
Super changes are coming
What’s your debt age?
Australian cash rate on hold
Super changes this financial year - Dr Shane Oliver - video
The door is closing on super’s current caps
Is Donald Trump's honeymoon with investors over?
Estate planning and why you need a super plan
What does a comfortable retirement look like?
Give your career a health check
Super changes from July 2017
Changes to the Age Pension assets test
Keep your money safe over the silly season
Looking ahead at 2017
Review of 2016, outlook for 2017 - looking better despite the political noise
Merry Christmas for 2016, a Happy New Year and a prosperous 2017.
54.2 million worries
Five tips for happy healthy ageing
Thinking about managing your own super?
Sending more to the tax office than you should?
Government pulls back on proposed changes to super
Market Update - What to consider when investing in a low return world
Stop!! Don't do a paper Budget, use our online budgeting tools instead.
Oliver's Insight - Megatrends
Value of Advice
A growing family doesn't have to blow the budget
Blinded by optimism
Thinking about managing your own super?
The investment outlook - it's not all that bad!
What’s your biggest obstacle to financial success?
Ageing Parents
Should you own the roof over your head?
Be a senior entrepreneur on your own terms!
Brexit and other key developments
Brexit wins
Commentary on major issues - AMP
Five money habits for a happy financial year
Are grandparents giving too much?
Remember to factor in parental subsidies at tax time
2016-17 Federal Budget - AMP
2016 Budget in detail
How (and why) to talk to your adult children about insurance
Procrastination: Just do it. Eventually.
Why Australian property won't collapse
The Lucky Country holding up pretty well
Have we reached the bottom?
The evolution of the Chinese consumer
Retirement rolls around faster than you think
Pressed for time?
Changes to the Age Pension assets test
Women are building financial intelligence
Heirlooms no more
Initial market falls precede stronger returns - Shane Oliver
What exactly is income protection insurance and do I need it?
A rough start to the year, which could have further to go
Aged Care - Changes to Assessment of Rental Income
A bump in the road, then a new start
New year, new start – are you ready for retirement?
Review of 2015, outlook for 2016 - Dr Shane Oliver
We wish you a Merry Christmas for 2015 and a Happy New Year
Go easy on the plastic over Christmas
Resolutions for a wealthy future
The Australian dollar doing what it normally does - overshoot. Dr Shane Oliver
How to manage volatility in a low return world
The Australian economy - more help will be needed. Dr Shane Oliver
Insurance through my super
Four tactics to build an investment portfolio
The demand for global infrastructure
Help achieve your investment goals with dynamic asset allocation
The Power of Budgeting
Jump retirement hurdles with a coach
Preparing for the time of your life
A Super Loan for all reasons
Making a smooth transition
Budget 2015 - some professional opinions
Australian Government - Budget 2015
Achieving a comfortable retirement
Is off-the-plan on the money?
Should I take my super as a lump sum or not?
Do you have a key person in your business?
Tips for success in a competitive job market
All you need to know about buying at auction
To sell or not to sell?
Saving in a material world
Review of 2015, outlook for 2016 - Dr Shane Oliver

Key points:

  • 2015 has been a messy year for investors as worries about China, emerging countries and the Fed caused volatility and uneven returns across asset classes. Australian shares continued to underperform. 
  • 2016 is likely to see continued okay but uneven global growth, low inflation & easy monetary conditions. While the US is likely to raise rates gradually, other countries including Australia remain biased to further easing. 
  • Most growth assets, including shares are likely to trend higher, resulting in reasonable returns. But volatility is likely to remain high as the easy gains are well and truly behind us. 
  • The main things to keep an eye on are the Fed, China and the ongoing rebalancing of the Australian economy.


2015 – a constrained year for investors

2015 has seen another long worry list for investors. Some of these – such as terrorist attacks in Paris, the escalating war in Syria, refugee problems in Europe, Greece’s latest tantrum and tensions in the South China Sea – have not had a lasting impact on investment markets. However, worries about deflation, falling commodity prices, fears of an emerging market (EM) crisis led by China and uncertainty around the Fed’s first interest rate hike have had a more lasting impact. In Australia the focus remained on the rebalancing of the economy after the mining boom as well on property bubbles. While it has not been a bad year for investors, overall returns have been constrained. 

Key themes have been: 

  • Constrained global growth.  This has been the story for the last few years. Global growth yet again failed to take off being constrained by a combination of a slowing manufacturing sector in the US, another downturn in Japan, a further slowing in China and deep recessions in Brazil and Russia. As a result global growth remained uneven and stuck around 3%. However, while this is causing ongoing skittishness amongst investors it’s not bad. Stronger growth would only bring inflation and interest rate worries.
  • Deflation fears linger.  Inflation remained low or fell in developed countries as excess capacity and falling commodity prices continued to impact.
  • Falling commodity prices.  The plunge in commodity prices continued as surging supply faced slower demand led by China. Bad news for commodity producers and related investments but good news for most developed countries.
  • Further global monetary easing, but with the Fed diverging.  While the Fed moved towards its first rate hike after seven years at zero, lift off was continuously delayed as central banks in China, Europe and Japan continued to ease in the face of sub-par growth and the deflation threat.
  • More geopolitical threats.  Terrorist attacks in Paris, the escalating war in Syria and tensions in the South China Sea all caused periodic fear, but without much lasting impact.
  • Subdued growth and more rate cuts in Australia.  The mining slump continued to weigh seeing growth remain sub-par. This saw the RBA cut the cash rate to a record low of 2%. But thankfully recession remains elusive as the economy has rebalanced with NSW and Victoria doing well.

While global growth remains in a “sweet spot”, its fragility & the associated skittishness of investors – particularly around China, EMs and the Fed – made for a volatile and disparate ride in investment markets. 

Investment returns for major asset classes  


  • Share markets started 2015 well, as falling inflation & bond yields saw shares revalued only to see them correct under the weight of China/EM/Fed worries, before rebounding somewhat into year-end as such fears faded a bit. 
  • In the developed world US shares took a back seat relative to Japanese and European shares which benefitted from easier monetary policy and lower currencies. 
  • While Chinese shares had a strong start, they fell back on bubble fears. Emerging market shares performed poorly. 
  • Commodities had another bad year as supply surged, Chinese growth slowed and the $US rose. 
  • Australian shares underperformed yet again as the slump in commodity prices weighed and as the big banks faced slower growth and higher capital requirements. While the utility, industrial and health sectors did well this was offset by resources, banks and consumer staples. Global and Australian bonds had subdued returns reflecting low yields. 
  • Real estate investment trusts and unlisted assets like commercial property and infrastructure had strong returns as investors sought decent sources of income yield. 
  • Australian residential property had a good year, but mainly due to house price gains in Sydney and Melbourne. However, gains slowed significantly in the December quarter as official measures designed to slow property investor lending kicked in. 
  • Cash rates and bank term deposit returns were poor reflecting record low RBA interest rates. 
  • The $A fell another 10% and this helped boost the returns from global shares, once translated into Australian dollars. 
  • Balanced superannuation funds still exceeded cash and inflation but are on track for their softest returns since 2011.

2016 – another year of constrained growth

No doubt those who were looking for economic mayhem to break out in 2015, will simply roll their expectations for disaster into 2016. However, there are good reasons to believe we will simply see a continuation of the constrained uneven global growth that we have been seeing over the last few years. 

  • Major economic downturns are invariably preceded by either economic or financial overheating and there are no signs of that. There has been no major global bubble in real estate or business investment, inflation remains low, share markets are not unambiguously overvalued and global monetary conditions are easy. In terms of the latter while the Fed is likely to raise rates the process is likely to be gradual reflecting constrained US growth and still low inflation. And monetary easing is set to continue elsewhere, which in turn will also limit the extent of Fed tightening to the extent it puts upwards pressure on the value of the $US. As such, apart from a left field shock, it is hard to see what will drive a major global economic downturn at present.
  • At the same time, it is hard to see what will drive a sharp acceleration in economic growth either. Rather, the structural combination of slower population growth, a more cautious approach to debt and structural problems in the emerging world will keep a lid on global growth.

Consistent with this leading growth indicators point to steady growth. Not collapsing, but not booming either. 

Global economic growth

Source: IMF, AMP Capital 

Against this background:

  • Global growth is likely to be just above 3%, ranging from (hopefully) the tail end of recessions in Brazil and Russia, to around 2.2% in advanced countries, around 4% in emerging countries and 6.5% in China. 
  • Inflation is likely to remain low on the back of still significant spare capacity and weak commodity prices. 
  • Global interest rates are likely to remain low, with the US raising rates gradually with the Fed Funds rate struggling to make 1% by year end and continuing monetary easing in Europe, Japan and China.

For Australia, the economy is likely to continue to rebalance away from mining. However, in the face of a further fall in mining investment, falling national income, a slowing contribution from housing and upwards pressure on bank mortgage rates from increasing capital requirements, further monetary stimulus in the form of more RBA interest rate cuts and a lower $A are likely to be needed. If this occurs then improving conditions in sectors like consumer spending, tourism, manufacturing and higher education should see GDP growth move up to around 3% by year end. At the same time inflation is likely to remain benign. The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate to 1.75% early in the year. 

Implications for investors?

The combination of okay global growth, still low inflation and easy money remains positive for growth assets. But ongoing emerging market uncertainties combined with Fed rate hikes and geopolitical flare ups are likely to cause volatility.

  • Global shares are likely to trend higher helped by a combination of relatively attractive valuations compared to bonds, continuing easy global monetary conditions and continuing moderate economic growth. 
  • For shares we favour Europe (which is still unambiguously cheap and seeing continued monetary easing), Japan (which will see continued monetary easing) and China (which will also see more monetary easing) over the US (which may be constrained by the Fed and relatively high profit margins) and emerging markets generally (which remain cheap but suffer from structural problems).
  • Australian shares are likely to improve as the drag from slumping resources profits abates, interest rates remain low and growth rebalances away from resources, but will probably continue to lag global shares again as the commodity price headwind remains. Expect the ASX 200 to rise to around 5700 by end 2016. 
  • Commodity prices may see a bounce from very oversold conditions, but excess supply for many commodities is expected to see them remain in a long term downtrend. 
  • Very low bond yields point to a soft return potential from sovereign bonds, but it’s hard to get too bearish in a world of too much saving, spare capacity & low inflation. 
  • Commercial property and infrastructure are likely to continue benefitting from the ongoing search by investors for yield. 
  • National capital city residential property price gains are expected to slow to around 3-4%, as the heat comes out of the Sydney and Melbourne markets. 
  • Cash and bank deposits are likely to continue to provide poor returns, with term deposit rates running around 2.5%. 
  • The downtrend in the $A is likely to continue as the interest rate differential in favour of Australia narrows, commodity prices remain weak and the $A undertakes its usual undershoot of fair value. Expect a fall to around $US0.60.

What to watch?

The main things to keep an eye on in 2016 are:

  • how aggressively the Fed raises rates – continued low inflation is likely to keep the Fed gradual (as we expect), but a surprise acceleration in inflation would speed it up; 
  • whether China continues to avoid a hard landing; 
  • whether non-mining investment picks up in Australia - a failure to do so could see more aggressive RBA rate cuts; 
  • ongoing geopolitical flare ups, including in the South China Sea; and 
  • whether the global economy can finally throw off the worry list and constraints seeing growth perk up.


Dr Shane Oliver 
Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist 
AMP Capital 

Important note: While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, AMP Capital Investors Limited (ABN 59 001 777 591, AFSL 232497) and AMP Capital Funds Management Limited (ABN 15 159 557 721, AFSL 426455) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This article has been prepared for the purpose of providing general information, without taking account of any particular investor’s objectives, financial situation or needs. An investor should, before making any investment decisions, consider the appropriateness of the information in this article, and seek professional advice, having regard to the investor’s objectives, financial situation and needs. This article is solely for the use of the party to whom it is provided.